The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

针对不同视场辅助信标的无人机目标定位方法

针对无人机在单站测角测距的目标定位过程中受无人机姿态角误差影响较大的问题，提出一种对辅助信标进行探测并与惯性传感器相结合的无人机姿态求解方法。建立基于容积卡尔曼滤波的惯性传感器姿态求解模型，采用梯度下降法对基于辅助信标的无人机位姿参数进行求解，并综合它们的结果对无人机的姿态偏差进行估计和校正，最后完成了不同视场条件下的目标定位和仿真计算。结果表明，所提方法对无人机目标定位精度有明显提高。     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

超重力下燃烧合成Al2O3-ZrO2（4Y）共晶陶瓷的自挤压工艺研究

引入自挤压工艺辅助超重力下燃烧合成制备Al2O3-ZrO2（4Y）共晶复合陶瓷,可有效地消除陶瓷制品的缩孔、缩松组织等缺陷,陶瓷致密性得到明显提高,同时又有效地抑制陶瓷裂纹萌生。XRD分析显示共晶陶瓷由α-Al2O3,t-ZrO2及少量的m-ZrO2三相组成,且随自挤压力增大,陶瓷中可相变的t-ZrO2的体积分数增加。SEM观察发现陶瓷的显微组织中的棒状共晶团随自挤压力的增大而细化,体积分数增加,且分布其上的t-ZrO2纤维直径变小,共晶团组织边缘处的ZrO2枝晶逐渐转变为细小的球晶,共晶团边界组织厚度逐渐减小,从而使陶瓷力学性能得以提升。     

Terror and Internal Migration in Israel

This paper empirically analyses the effect of terror on internal migration between Israeli subdistricts. Using a unique data-set comprising migration flows for the period 1999–2012 and the number of rocket and non-rocket attacks, we test the hypotheses that terror reduces migration into an affected subdistrict and increases migration out of it. According to our results, the effect of terror on migration is asymmetric as we only find evidence for the first hypothesis. This result remains when we use an instrumental variables strategy that corrects for underreporting of the number of rocket attacks. The largest effects of rocket attacks are found for migration into the Southern subdistrict of Ashqelon as well as into other border regions in Northern Israel, while non-rocket attacks also have substantial effects in the more populous centres of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.     

Lipschitz非线性系统状态观测器设计新方法

针对Lipschitz非线性系统状态观测器,提出了一种以极小化条件数为目标准则的新的设计方法。运用梯度下降法和Slyvester方程,计算极小化条件数,优化增益矩阵和最大允许Lipschitz常数,完成观测器设计。通过同其它文献的算例比较,结果发现按文中方法设计的观测器具有迭代次数少、优化结果好的特点。     

天海一体化水下重力辅助导航研究进展

水下航行器精确导航在海洋利用和开发过程中发挥了重要作用。关于抑制水下导航误差随时间累积的问题,进行了详细阐述和分析:简述了惯性器件的发展历程;详细对比了各导航系统的优劣性,着重介绍了国内外重力辅助导航研究现状,分析了针对目前水下航行器高精度导航的需求,以及全球海洋重力基准图空间分辨率不足的科学难题;提出了通过GNSS-R测高星座获得高空间分辨率和高精度全球海洋重力基准图的思路及技术路线,以期提高水下重力辅助导航精度。     

挤压铸造ZA27合金阻尼性能研究

对比研究了ＺＡ２７合金挤压铸造和重力铸造时的阻尼性能，结果表明：挤压铸造试样内耗高于重力铸造，是重力铸造的１．２倍；挤压铸造试样传递函数低于重力铸造；在频率高于２５　Ｈｚ时，ＺＡ２７合金的阻尼作用效果明显，且挤压铸造成型的机件振动衰减效果比重力铸造强．     

Kriging与改进一次二阶矩融合的可靠性分析方法

针对结构可靠性分析问题,提出了Kriging与改进一次二阶矩方法相融合的分析方法。传统的改进一次二阶矩需要计算结构功能函数的梯度信息,在处理包含有限元模型的隐式极限状态问题时会比较困难。该方法将Kriging代理模型与改进一次二阶矩迭代有效而充分地结合,借助Kriging方法提供功能函数的梯度信息,以解决隐式极限状态函数的求导难题,提高分析效率。通过数值与工程算例验证了所提方法的可行性和高效性。     

一致光滑Banach空间中一类非线性算子方程的解

证明了一个新的锐角原理,在不使用连续性条件的情况下,给出了在一致光滑Banach空间中一类非线性算子方程的可解性定理。